{ "slug": "food-security-fertilizer", "generatedAt": "2026-06-08", "charts": { "food-exporter-map": { "component": "PartnerMap", "title": "Top exporters of major food commodities, 2024", "unit": "millions_usd", "years": [ 2024 ], "source": "CEPII BACI HS92 (trade_2024.parquet)", "caveatIds": [ "trade-value-not-availability", "baci-country-codes", "hs92-compatible-history" ], "groups": [ { "group": "wheat", "label": "Wheat", "hs6": [ "100110", "100190" ], "worldExportsUsdMillions": 57094.0, "topExporterIso3": "RUS", "topExporterName": "Russian Federation", "topExporterSharePct": 16.11, "exporters": [ { "code": 643, "iso3": "RUS", "name": "Russian Federation", "exportsUsdMillions": 9197.1, "sharePct": 16.11 }, { "code": 124, "iso3": "CAN", "name": "Canada", "exportsUsdMillions": 7797.0, "sharePct": 13.66 }, { "code": 842, "iso3": "USA", "name": "USA", "exportsUsdMillions": 6541.3, "sharePct": 11.46 }, { "code": 36, "iso3": "AUS", "name": "Australia", "exportsUsdMillions": 5490.0, "sharePct": 9.62 }, { "code": 804, "iso3": "UKR", "name": "Ukraine", "exportsUsdMillions": 4629.5, "sharePct": 8.11 }, { "code": 251, "iso3": "FRA", "name": "France", "exportsUsdMillions": 4268.0, "sharePct": 7.48 } ] }, { "group": "maize", "label": "Maize", "hs6": [ "100510", "100590" ], "worldExportsUsdMillions": 45130.1, "topExporterIso3": "USA", "topExporterName": "USA", "topExporterSharePct": 23.92, "exporters": [ { "code": 842, "iso3": "USA", "name": "USA", "exportsUsdMillions": 10795.0, "sharePct": 23.92 }, { "code": 76, "iso3": "BRA", "name": "Brazil", "exportsUsdMillions": 8806.0, "sharePct": 19.51 }, { "code": 32, "iso3": "ARG", "name": "Argentina", "exportsUsdMillions": 7375.8, "sharePct": 16.34 }, { "code": 804, "iso3": "UKR", "name": "Ukraine", "exportsUsdMillions": 5914.0, "sharePct": 13.1 }, { "code": 251, "iso3": "FRA", "name": "France", "exportsUsdMillions": 1877.1, "sharePct": 4.16 }, { "code": 710, "iso3": "ZAF", "name": "South Africa", "exportsUsdMillions": 991.4, "sharePct": 2.2 } ] }, { "group": "rice", "label": "Rice", "hs6": [ "100610", "100620", "100630", "100640" ], "worldExportsUsdMillions": 38848.3, "topExporterIso3": "IND", "topExporterName": "India", "topExporterSharePct": 29.31, "exporters": [ { "code": 699, "iso3": "IND", "name": "India", "exportsUsdMillions": 11384.8, "sharePct": 29.31 }, { "code": 764, "iso3": "THA", "name": "Thailand", "exportsUsdMillions": 6693.3, "sharePct": 17.23 }, { "code": 704, "iso3": "VNM", "name": "Viet Nam", "exportsUsdMillions": 4091.4, "sharePct": 10.53 }, { "code": 586, "iso3": "PAK", "name": "Pakistan", "exportsUsdMillions": 3922.6, "sharePct": 10.1 }, { "code": 842, "iso3": "USA", "name": "USA", "exportsUsdMillions": 2527.5, "sharePct": 6.51 }, { "code": 116, "iso3": "KHM", "name": "Cambodia", "exportsUsdMillions": 1901.3, "sharePct": 4.89 } ] }, { "group": "soybeans", "label": "Soybeans", "hs6": [ "120100" ], "worldExportsUsdMillions": 80203.4, "topExporterIso3": "BRA", "topExporterName": "Brazil", "topExporterSharePct": 55.35, "exporters": [ { "code": 76, "iso3": "BRA", "name": "Brazil", "exportsUsdMillions": 44393.3, "sharePct": 55.35 }, { "code": 842, "iso3": "USA", "name": "USA", "exportsUsdMillions": 23212.6, "sharePct": 28.94 }, { "code": 600, "iso3": "PRY", "name": "Paraguay", "exportsUsdMillions": 3256.6, "sharePct": 4.06 }, { "code": 124, "iso3": "CAN", "name": "Canada", "exportsUsdMillions": 2443.6, "sharePct": 3.05 }, { "code": 32, "iso3": "ARG", "name": "Argentina", "exportsUsdMillions": 1964.3, "sharePct": 2.45 }, { "code": 804, "iso3": "UKR", "name": "Ukraine", "exportsUsdMillions": 1427.7, "sharePct": 1.78 } ] } ], "data": [ { "group": "wheat", "label": "Wheat", "hs6": [ "100110", "100190" ], "worldExportsUsdMillions": 57094.0, "topExporterIso3": "RUS", "topExporterName": "Russian Federation", "topExporterSharePct": 16.11, "exporters": [ { "code": 643, "iso3": "RUS", "name": "Russian Federation", "exportsUsdMillions": 9197.1, "sharePct": 16.11 }, { "code": 124, "iso3": "CAN", "name": "Canada", "exportsUsdMillions": 7797.0, "sharePct": 13.66 }, { "code": 842, "iso3": "USA", "name": "USA", "exportsUsdMillions": 6541.3, "sharePct": 11.46 }, { "code": 36, "iso3": "AUS", "name": "Australia", "exportsUsdMillions": 5490.0, "sharePct": 9.62 }, { "code": 804, "iso3": "UKR", "name": "Ukraine", "exportsUsdMillions": 4629.5, "sharePct": 8.11 }, { "code": 251, "iso3": "FRA", "name": "France", "exportsUsdMillions": 4268.0, "sharePct": 7.48 } ] }, { "group": "maize", "label": "Maize", "hs6": [ "100510", "100590" ], "worldExportsUsdMillions": 45130.1, "topExporterIso3": "USA", "topExporterName": "USA", "topExporterSharePct": 23.92, "exporters": [ { "code": 842, "iso3": "USA", "name": "USA", "exportsUsdMillions": 10795.0, "sharePct": 23.92 }, { "code": 76, "iso3": "BRA", "name": "Brazil", "exportsUsdMillions": 8806.0, "sharePct": 19.51 }, { "code": 32, "iso3": "ARG", "name": "Argentina", "exportsUsdMillions": 7375.8, "sharePct": 16.34 }, { "code": 804, "iso3": "UKR", "name": "Ukraine", "exportsUsdMillions": 5914.0, "sharePct": 13.1 }, { "code": 251, "iso3": "FRA", "name": "France", "exportsUsdMillions": 1877.1, "sharePct": 4.16 }, { "code": 710, "iso3": "ZAF", "name": "South Africa", "exportsUsdMillions": 991.4, "sharePct": 2.2 } ] }, { "group": "rice", "label": "Rice", "hs6": [ "100610", "100620", "100630", "100640" ], "worldExportsUsdMillions": 38848.3, "topExporterIso3": "IND", "topExporterName": "India", "topExporterSharePct": 29.31, "exporters": [ { "code": 699, "iso3": "IND", "name": "India", "exportsUsdMillions": 11384.8, "sharePct": 29.31 }, { "code": 764, "iso3": "THA", "name": "Thailand", "exportsUsdMillions": 6693.3, "sharePct": 17.23 }, { "code": 704, "iso3": "VNM", "name": "Viet Nam", "exportsUsdMillions": 4091.4, "sharePct": 10.53 }, { "code": 586, "iso3": "PAK", "name": "Pakistan", "exportsUsdMillions": 3922.6, "sharePct": 10.1 }, { "code": 842, "iso3": "USA", "name": "USA", "exportsUsdMillions": 2527.5, "sharePct": 6.51 }, { "code": 116, "iso3": "KHM", "name": "Cambodia", "exportsUsdMillions": 1901.3, "sharePct": 4.89 } ] }, { "group": "soybeans", "label": "Soybeans", "hs6": [ "120100" ], "worldExportsUsdMillions": 80203.4, "topExporterIso3": "BRA", "topExporterName": "Brazil", "topExporterSharePct": 55.35, "exporters": [ { "code": 76, "iso3": "BRA", "name": "Brazil", "exportsUsdMillions": 44393.3, "sharePct": 55.35 }, { "code": 842, "iso3": "USA", "name": "USA", "exportsUsdMillions": 23212.6, "sharePct": 28.94 }, { "code": 600, "iso3": "PRY", "name": "Paraguay", "exportsUsdMillions": 3256.6, "sharePct": 4.06 }, { "code": 124, "iso3": "CAN", "name": "Canada", "exportsUsdMillions": 2443.6, "sharePct": 3.05 }, { "code": 32, "iso3": "ARG", "name": "Argentina", "exportsUsdMillions": 1964.3, "sharePct": 2.45 }, { "code": 804, "iso3": "UKR", "name": "Ukraine", "exportsUsdMillions": 1427.7, "sharePct": 1.78 } ] } ] }, "fertilizer-dependency": { "component": "ExposureBubblePlot", "title": "Fertilizer import dependency: scale vs top-supplier concentration, 2024", "unit": "millions_usd", "years": [ 2024 ], "source": "CEPII BACI HS92 (trade_2024.parquet)", "caveatIds": [ "route-proxy", "min-fert-import-threshold", "trade-value-not-availability", "baci-country-codes" ], "thresholdNote": "Importers with at least $0.5B of fertilizer imports in 2024; below that a 100% top-supplier share on a tiny base would dominate the ranking.", "axes": { "x": "fertImportsUsdMillions", "y": "topSupplierSharePct", "size": "fertImportsUsdMillions" }, "data": [ { "code": 76, "iso3": "BRA", "name": "Brazil", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 7464.6, "topSupplierIso3": "RUS", "topSupplierName": "Russian Federation", "topSupplierSharePct": 32.6, "top3SupplierSharePct": 58.9, "supplierHHI": 0.1631, "supplierCount": 51, "highlighted": true, "rank": 1 }, { "code": 842, "iso3": "USA", "name": "USA", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 6925.6, "topSupplierIso3": "CAN", "topSupplierName": "Canada", "topSupplierSharePct": 50.9, "top3SupplierSharePct": 76.4, "supplierHHI": 0.3012, "supplierCount": 58, "highlighted": false, "rank": 2 }, { "code": 699, "iso3": "IND", "name": "India", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 6185.4, "topSupplierIso3": "SAU", "topSupplierName": "Saudi Arabia", "topSupplierSharePct": 20.8, "top3SupplierSharePct": 50.7, "supplierHHI": 0.1227, "supplierCount": 44, "highlighted": true, "rank": 3 }, { "code": 156, "iso3": "CHN", "name": "China", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 3834.1, "topSupplierIso3": "RUS", "topSupplierName": "Russian Federation", "topSupplierSharePct": 32.8, "top3SupplierSharePct": 74.0, "supplierHHI": 0.2211, "supplierCount": 37, "highlighted": false, "rank": 4 }, { "code": 36, "iso3": "AUS", "name": "Australia", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 2037.9, "topSupplierIso3": "ARE", "topSupplierName": "United Arab Emirates", "topSupplierSharePct": 14.0, "top3SupplierSharePct": 38.9, "supplierHHI": 0.0908, "supplierCount": 42, "highlighted": false, "rank": 5 }, { "code": 50, "iso3": "BGD", "name": "Bangladesh", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 1500.3, "topSupplierIso3": "MAR", "topSupplierName": "Morocco", "topSupplierSharePct": 38.5, "top3SupplierSharePct": 95.1, "supplierHHI": 0.311, "supplierCount": 11, "highlighted": true, "rank": 6 }, { "code": 251, "iso3": "FRA", "name": "France", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 1421.5, "topSupplierIso3": "EGY", "topSupplierName": "Egypt", "topSupplierSharePct": 14.1, "top3SupplierSharePct": 40.6, "supplierHHI": 0.0956, "supplierCount": 60, "highlighted": false, "rank": 7 }, { "code": 764, "iso3": "THA", "name": "Thailand", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 1267.9, "topSupplierIso3": "SAU", "topSupplierName": "Saudi Arabia", "topSupplierSharePct": 29.0, "top3SupplierSharePct": 51.8, "supplierHHI": 0.1376, "supplierCount": 37, "highlighted": false, "rank": 8 }, { "code": 792, "iso3": "TUR", "name": "T\u00fcrkiye", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 1186.3, "topSupplierIso3": "OMN", "topSupplierName": "Oman", "topSupplierSharePct": 41.9, "top3SupplierSharePct": 74.4, "supplierHHI": 0.2465, "supplierCount": 47, "highlighted": false, "rank": 9 }, { "code": 484, "iso3": "MEX", "name": "Mexico", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 1092.2, "topSupplierIso3": "RUS", "topSupplierName": "Russian Federation", "topSupplierSharePct": 39.5, "top3SupplierSharePct": 72.6, "supplierHHI": 0.2187, "supplierCount": 32, "highlighted": false, "rank": 10 }, { "code": 360, "iso3": "IDN", "name": "Indonesia", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 1076.7, "topSupplierIso3": "RUS", "topSupplierName": "Russian Federation", "topSupplierSharePct": 33.2, "top3SupplierSharePct": 77.5, "supplierHHI": 0.2386, "supplierCount": 28, "highlighted": true, "rank": 11 }, { "code": 616, "iso3": "POL", "name": "Poland", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 979.7, "topSupplierIso3": "RUS", "topSupplierName": "Russian Federation", "topSupplierSharePct": 32.1, "top3SupplierSharePct": 64.0, "supplierHHI": 0.1801, "supplierCount": 49, "highlighted": false, "rank": 12 }, { "code": 124, "iso3": "CAN", "name": "Canada", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 792.8, "topSupplierIso3": "USA", "topSupplierName": "USA", "topSupplierSharePct": 56.2, "top3SupplierSharePct": 76.6, "supplierHHI": 0.3471, "supplierCount": 45, "highlighted": false, "rank": 13 }, { "code": 32, "iso3": "ARG", "name": "Argentina", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 688.8, "topSupplierIso3": "NGA", "topSupplierName": "Nigeria", "topSupplierSharePct": 16.2, "top3SupplierSharePct": 41.5, "supplierHHI": 0.1001, "supplierCount": 32, "highlighted": false, "rank": 14 }, { "code": 826, "iso3": "GBR", "name": "United Kingdom", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 664.2, "topSupplierIso3": "DEU", "topSupplierName": "Germany", "topSupplierSharePct": 11.3, "top3SupplierSharePct": 31.2, "supplierHHI": 0.0781, "supplierCount": 44, "highlighted": false, "rank": 15 }, { "code": 704, "iso3": "VNM", "name": "Viet Nam", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 661.0, "topSupplierIso3": "CHN", "topSupplierName": "China", "topSupplierSharePct": 52.7, "top3SupplierSharePct": 74.4, "supplierHHI": 0.3175, "supplierCount": 25, "highlighted": false, "rank": 16 }, { "code": 56, "iso3": "BEL", "name": "Belgium", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 659.7, "topSupplierIso3": "CAN", "topSupplierName": "Canada", "topSupplierSharePct": 35.4, "top3SupplierSharePct": 60.5, "supplierHHI": 0.1759, "supplierCount": 38, "highlighted": false, "rank": 17 }, { "code": 586, "iso3": "PAK", "name": "Pakistan", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 653.4, "topSupplierIso3": "CHN", "topSupplierName": "China", "topSupplierSharePct": 35.1, "top3SupplierSharePct": 81.9, "supplierHHI": 0.2567, "supplierCount": 28, "highlighted": false, "rank": 18 }, { "code": 458, "iso3": "MYS", "name": "Malaysia", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 628.0, "topSupplierIso3": "RUS", "topSupplierName": "Russian Federation", "topSupplierSharePct": 39.6, "top3SupplierSharePct": 67.7, "supplierHHI": 0.2142, "supplierCount": 45, "highlighted": false, "rank": 19 }, { "code": 410, "iso3": "KOR", "name": "Rep. of Korea", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 616.4, "topSupplierIso3": "CAN", "topSupplierName": "Canada", "topSupplierSharePct": 31.4, "top3SupplierSharePct": 61.6, "supplierHHI": 0.1623, "supplierCount": 44, "highlighted": false, "rank": 20 }, { "code": 380, "iso3": "ITA", "name": "Italy", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 591.8, "topSupplierIso3": "EGY", "topSupplierName": "Egypt", "topSupplierSharePct": 31.0, "top3SupplierSharePct": 52.4, "supplierHHI": 0.1391, "supplierCount": 49, "highlighted": false, "rank": 21 }, { "code": 170, "iso3": "COL", "name": "Colombia", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 547.9, "topSupplierIso3": "RUS", "topSupplierName": "Russian Federation", "topSupplierSharePct": 29.8, "top3SupplierSharePct": 63.5, "supplierHHI": 0.168, "supplierCount": 38, "highlighted": false, "rank": 22 }, { "code": 724, "iso3": "ESP", "name": "Spain", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 531.2, "topSupplierIso3": "EGY", "topSupplierName": "Egypt", "topSupplierSharePct": 30.4, "top3SupplierSharePct": 57.5, "supplierHHI": 0.1464, "supplierCount": 49, "highlighted": false, "rank": 23 }, { "code": 604, "iso3": "PER", "name": "Peru", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 524.0, "topSupplierIso3": "RUS", "topSupplierName": "Russian Federation", "topSupplierSharePct": 48.2, "top3SupplierSharePct": 68.0, "supplierHHI": 0.2641, "supplierCount": 38, "highlighted": false, "rank": 24 }, { "code": 608, "iso3": "PHL", "name": "Philippines", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 501.2, "topSupplierIso3": "IDN", "topSupplierName": "Indonesia", "topSupplierSharePct": 28.7, "top3SupplierSharePct": 59.4, "supplierHHI": 0.1548, "supplierCount": 31, "highlighted": false, "rank": 25 } ] }, "country-cases": { "component": "ConcentrationMatrix", "title": "Fertilizer import dependence: five case countries, 2024", "unit": "millions_usd", "years": [ 2024 ], "source": "CEPII BACI HS92 (trade_2024.parquet)", "caveatIds": [ "route-proxy", "trade-value-not-availability", "no-hunger-ranking", "baci-country-codes" ], "data": [ { "code": 76, "iso3": "BRA", "name": "Brazil", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 7464.6, "fertExportsUsdMillions": 41.3, "topSupplierIso3": "RUS", "topSupplierName": "Russian Federation", "topSupplierSharePct": 32.6, "top3SupplierSharePct": 58.9, "supplierHHI": 0.1631, "supplierCount": 51, "topSuppliers": [ { "iso3": "RUS", "name": "Russian Federation", "valueUsdMillions": 2433.8, "sharePct": 32.6 }, { "iso3": "CAN", "name": "Canada", "valueUsdMillions": 1391.8, "sharePct": 18.6 }, { "iso3": "NGA", "name": "Nigeria", "valueUsdMillions": 571.6, "sharePct": 7.7 }, { "iso3": "OMN", "name": "Oman", "valueUsdMillions": 540.4, "sharePct": 7.2 }, { "iso3": "QAT", "name": "Qatar", "valueUsdMillions": 426.4, "sharePct": 5.7 } ] }, { "code": 699, "iso3": "IND", "name": "India", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 6185.4, "fertExportsUsdMillions": 95.9, "topSupplierIso3": "SAU", "topSupplierName": "Saudi Arabia", "topSupplierSharePct": 20.8, "top3SupplierSharePct": 50.7, "supplierHHI": 0.1227, "supplierCount": 44, "topSuppliers": [ { "iso3": "SAU", "name": "Saudi Arabia", "valueUsdMillions": 1287.9, "sharePct": 20.8 }, { "iso3": "RUS", "name": "Russian Federation", "valueUsdMillions": 952.5, "sharePct": 15.4 }, { "iso3": "OMN", "name": "Oman", "valueUsdMillions": 897.8, "sharePct": 14.5 }, { "iso3": "MAR", "name": "Morocco", "valueUsdMillions": 842.7, "sharePct": 13.6 }, { "iso3": "CHN", "name": "China", "valueUsdMillions": 529.9, "sharePct": 8.6 } ] }, { "code": 360, "iso3": "IDN", "name": "Indonesia", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 1076.7, "fertExportsUsdMillions": 626.4, "topSupplierIso3": "RUS", "topSupplierName": "Russian Federation", "topSupplierSharePct": 33.2, "top3SupplierSharePct": 77.5, "supplierHHI": 0.2386, "supplierCount": 28, "topSuppliers": [ { "iso3": "RUS", "name": "Russian Federation", "valueUsdMillions": 357.4, "sharePct": 33.2 }, { "iso3": "CAN", "name": "Canada", "valueUsdMillions": 347.5, "sharePct": 32.3 }, { "iso3": "CHN", "name": "China", "valueUsdMillions": 129.2, "sharePct": 12.0 }, { "iso3": "BLR", "name": "Belarus", "valueUsdMillions": 66.7, "sharePct": 6.2 }, { "iso3": "LAO", "name": "Lao People's Dem. Rep.", "valueUsdMillions": 54.7, "sharePct": 5.1 } ] }, { "code": 818, "iso3": "EGY", "name": "Egypt", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 110.1, "fertExportsUsdMillions": 1815.1, "topSupplierIso3": "JOR", "topSupplierName": "Jordan", "topSupplierSharePct": 91.0, "top3SupplierSharePct": 97.0, "supplierHHI": 0.8308, "supplierCount": 16, "topSuppliers": [ { "iso3": "JOR", "name": "Jordan", "valueUsdMillions": 100.2, "sharePct": 91.0 }, { "iso3": "TUR", "name": "T\u00fcrkiye", "valueUsdMillions": 4.4, "sharePct": 4.0 }, { "iso3": "RUS", "name": "Russian Federation", "valueUsdMillions": 2.1, "sharePct": 1.9 }, { "iso3": "DEU", "name": "Germany", "valueUsdMillions": 1.9, "sharePct": 1.8 }, { "iso3": "ITA", "name": "Italy", "valueUsdMillions": 0.4, "sharePct": 0.4 } ] }, { "code": 50, "iso3": "BGD", "name": "Bangladesh", "fertImportsUsdMillions": 1500.3, "fertExportsUsdMillions": 0.1, "topSupplierIso3": "MAR", "topSupplierName": "Morocco", "topSupplierSharePct": 38.5, "top3SupplierSharePct": 95.1, "supplierHHI": 0.311, "supplierCount": 11, "topSuppliers": [ { "iso3": "MAR", "name": "Morocco", "valueUsdMillions": 577.9, "sharePct": 38.5 }, { "iso3": "CHN", "name": "China", "valueUsdMillions": 434.6, "sharePct": 29.0 }, { "iso3": "SAU", "name": "Saudi Arabia", "valueUsdMillions": 414.7, "sharePct": 27.6 }, { "iso3": "CAN", "name": "Canada", "valueUsdMillions": 72.5, "sharePct": 4.8 }, { "iso3": "KOR", "name": "Rep. of Korea", "valueUsdMillions": 0.3, "sharePct": 0.0 } ] } ] }, "fertilizer-timeline": { "component": "StackedAreaShares", "title": "World fertilizer trade value and Russia/Belarus share, 2018-2024", "unit": "millions_usd", "years": [ 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "source": "CEPII BACI HS92 (trade_2018..2024.parquet)", "caveatIds": [ "trade-value-not-availability", "annual-not-within-year", "route-proxy", "hs92-compatible-history" ], "annotations": [ { "year": 2022, "label": "2022: fertilizer trade VALUE peaks at $93.8B (price-driven); wheat value peaks at $78.9B" } ], "data": [ { "year": 2018, "worldFertExportsUsdMillions": 41455.3, "russiaFertExportsUsdMillions": 6148.9, "belarusFertExportsUsdMillions": 2902.9, "rusBlrFertSharePct": 21.84, "russiaFertSharePct": 14.83, "belarusFertSharePct": 7.0, "worldWheatExportsUsdMillions": 49838.5 }, { "year": 2019, "worldFertExportsUsdMillions": 42994.8, "russiaFertExportsUsdMillions": 6796.7, "belarusFertExportsUsdMillions": 2922.3, "rusBlrFertSharePct": 22.61, "russiaFertSharePct": 15.81, "belarusFertSharePct": 6.8, "worldWheatExportsUsdMillions": 48545.5 }, { "year": 2020, "worldFertExportsUsdMillions": 38608.2, "russiaFertExportsUsdMillions": 5552.7, "belarusFertExportsUsdMillions": 2589.2, "rusBlrFertSharePct": 21.09, "russiaFertSharePct": 14.38, "belarusFertSharePct": 6.71, "worldWheatExportsUsdMillions": 54284.3 }, { "year": 2021, "worldFertExportsUsdMillions": 58918.4, "russiaFertExportsUsdMillions": 8663.7, "belarusFertExportsUsdMillions": 3262.9, "rusBlrFertSharePct": 20.24, "russiaFertSharePct": 14.7, "belarusFertSharePct": 5.54, "worldWheatExportsUsdMillions": 66616.0 }, { "year": 2022, "worldFertExportsUsdMillions": 93843.3, "russiaFertExportsUsdMillions": 13197.0, "belarusFertExportsUsdMillions": 2189.7, "rusBlrFertSharePct": 16.4, "russiaFertSharePct": 14.06, "belarusFertSharePct": 2.33, "worldWheatExportsUsdMillions": 78924.4 }, { "year": 2023, "worldFertExportsUsdMillions": 61406.2, "russiaFertExportsUsdMillions": 10049.8, "belarusFertExportsUsdMillions": 2044.5, "rusBlrFertSharePct": 19.7, "russiaFertSharePct": 16.37, "belarusFertSharePct": 3.33, "worldWheatExportsUsdMillions": 65799.3 }, { "year": 2024, "worldFertExportsUsdMillions": 54556.6, "russiaFertExportsUsdMillions": 9941.8, "belarusFertExportsUsdMillions": 1135.6, "rusBlrFertSharePct": 20.3, "russiaFertSharePct": 18.22, "belarusFertSharePct": 2.08, "worldWheatExportsUsdMillions": 57094.0 } ] }, "source-ledger": { "component": "SourceLedger", "title": "Evidence ledger: measured trade, concentration proxy, external context", "unit": "millions_usd", "years": [ 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "source": "CEPII BACI HS92 (measured); FAO and World Bank (context)", "caveatIds": [ "trade-value-not-availability", "route-proxy", "no-hunger-ranking", "value-is-price-and-volume", "baci-country-codes" ], "data": [ { "layer": "measured", "label": "Food commodity exporter totals, 2024", "detail": "Exporter-country sums for wheat, maize, rice, soybeans. Brazil = 55.4% of world soybean exports.", "anchorValue": 80203.4, "anchorUnit": "millions_usd", "source": "CEPII BACI HS92 (trade_2024.parquet)" }, { "layer": "measured", "label": "Fertilizer import dependency, 2024", "detail": "Importer-by-source-country fertilizer flows; total imports, top-supplier share, supplier HHI. Brazil = world's largest fertilizer importer at $7.5B.", "anchorValue": 7464.6, "anchorUnit": "millions_usd", "source": "CEPII BACI HS92 (trade_2024.parquet)" }, { "layer": "measured", "label": "World fertilizer trade value, 2018-2024", "detail": "Annual world fertilizer exports. Peaked at $93.8B in 2022 (x2.43 vs 2020).", "anchorValue": 93843.3, "anchorUnit": "millions_usd", "source": "CEPII BACI HS92 (trade_2018..2024.parquet)" }, { "layer": "proxy", "label": "Top-supplier concentration as exposure", "detail": "Top-supplier share and supplier HHI are used as a source-country concentration proxy. Measures where purchases originate, not routes, substitutability, stocks, or domestic production.", "anchorValue": null, "anchorUnit": "percent", "source": "Editorial method (proxy)" }, { "layer": "context", "label": "2022 food and fertilizer price shock", "detail": "The measured 2022 value spike is dominated by price. Its causes (war in Ukraine, export restrictions, energy-driven production costs) and human effects come from FAO and World Bank sources, kept separate from BACI.", "anchorValue": null, "anchorUnit": "context", "source": "FAO; World Bank (external context)" } ] } } }